A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
